The Nines Deck and Scientific Reasoning
I wrote about the Nines Deck here as an example of multiple model comparison. Here I want to extend the example to explore more about scientific reasoning.
I ended my …
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Category: math
The Nines Deck and Non-Monotonic Probability Changes
I realized that I don't have a blog post about my favorite simple probability example, the High-Low Deck Game. I've written about it in Statistical Inference for Everyone but I …
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Stats 101 Examples with MCMC Part 4 Estimating a central value with a Cauchy Distribution
This is another in the series of "Statistics 101" examples solved with MCMC. Others in the series:
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Stats 101 Examples with MCMC Part 3 Estimating a proportion
This is another in the series of "Statistics 101" examples solved with MCMC. Others in the series:
In all of …
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Stats 101 Examples with MCMC Part 2 Estimating mean with unknown 𝜎
This is another in the series of "Statistics 101" examples solved with MCMC. The previous in the series can be found here. In all of these posts I'm going to …
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Stats 101 Examples with MCMC Estimating mean with known 𝜎
I'd like to walk through some of the "Statistics 101" examples (e.g. estimating <math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><semantics><mrow><mi>μ</mi></mrow><annotation …
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Probability - It's Not Just about the Math
When I first learned probability, I thought it was all about math and counting. Then E. T. Jaynes showed me that probability forms the foundation of rationality itself. Remarkably very …
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An Interesting Twist on the Gambler's Fallacy
I was reminded of the Gambler's Fallacy in a recent post by Stephen Novella and thought of a twist on the fallacy that makes it a bit more subtle. The …
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If at first you don't succeed (for 50 times) you might reconsider
Here's a straightforward problem from Quora - probably found in a textbook - but I try to find a new direction to make it more interesting.
If there is a 25% chance …
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Cool theorem - angle bisector
I was helping my daughter with geometry the other day and this cute theorem popped up in the examples. For some reason I don't recall ever seeing it before, and …
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